Saturday, November 1, 2008

Opus goes to his final rest tomorrow

But how -- without Opus -- will you exercise your Michael Moore side?

[Breathed]: I'll be on my couch Sunday mornings screaming at Brokaw and Stephanopoulos to call out the blathering bastards on their stupid fucking talking points and pin the dancing, lying, spinning Tasmanian Weasels down about something, ANYTHING for Christ Bloody Sake THE COUNTRY IS GETTING STEERED INTO CHAOS AND INSOLVENCY AND WAR BY ITS UNREAD UNINFORMED DULLARD SHEEP CONSTITUENCIES AND YOU JUST LET THE CANDIDATE SAY ONE MORE TIME WITHOUT OBJECTION THAT HE'S GOING TO CUT TAXES WHILE HE CALLS FOR FREE 24 KARAT GOLD FRANKFURTERS TO BE INSERTED INTO EVERY AMERICAN'S ASS JUST BECAUSE BUTT BULLION POLLS WELL.

You see right there why I can't have Opus involved with this anymore.

See the final weeks of Opus...

McCain is no Reagan

“Whatever else history may say about me when I’m gone,” said Reagan, “I hope it will record that I appealed to your best hopes, not your worst fears.”

I'm no fan of the Gipper to say the least, but even Ron wouldn't have stooped to this campaign.

Vote now, vote early


Thank goodness I voted early 4 weeks ago! (I overcame my tendency to procrastinate.) Arlington Democrats reported waits as long as 5 hours at Courthouse Plaza today.

Obama's social networking savvy ramps up campaign activity in Virginia

Virginia campaign activity for Obama is fast and furious:

More than 10,000 volunteers are working for Obama in Virginia, according to the campaign. They appear to be making a difference: According to the Post poll, Obama had a 75 to 22 percent advantage among likely voters who had heard from his campaign in person, on the phone or via e-mail or text message but had not been reached by Sen. John McCain's campaign. ...

Grass-roots activity in Virginia for McCain appears to be less energized. A recent two-day swing through every Northern Virginia campaign office for both candidates found crowds of volunteers for Obama on the phones, being trained to canvass and passing out signs, stickers and other material. McCain's offices were universally quiet, in some cases with just one or two field workers sitting at a counter or table and little foot traffic. This week, just days before the election, Obama's Web site advertised more than 300 events in Northern Virginia; McCain's advertised seven.

Southern Republicans confirm: Southern Republicans are White

On Wednesday, the chairman of the Hillsborough County, Florida Republican party forwarded an e-mail to several hundred party members that warned of “‘the threat’ of ‘carloads of black Obama supporters coming from the inner city to cast their votes.’”

And Saxby Chambliss in Georgia:

It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening. ... The other folks are voting.

A Cheatsheet on Virginia voting patterns, largest counties

From Marc Ambinder, The Atlantic.

Note that these are counties from NoVa, central VA, and eastern VA. None from South or Southwestern VA, which are very conservative and still have influence over an election, in spite of lower population density.

You might notice that all of the below went Dole/Kemp in '96, Bush/Cheney in '00, Bush/Cheney in '04, Kaine in '05, except for Fairfax in '04 (Kerry by huge margin). The only other difference is the Senate race in '06 between Webb and Allen.

V I R G I N I A
Largest County: Fairfax (2004: Kerry+25)

Henrico County - Richmond Suburbs (1 GOP, 1 Dem)

General '06: Allen
General '05: Kaine
General '04: Bush/Cheney (+12)
General '00: Bush/Cheney
General '96: Dole/Kemp


Loudon County -- NOVA (1 GOP)

General '06: Webb
General '05: Kaine
General '04: Bush/Cheney (+12)
General '00: Bush/Cheney

General '96: Dole/Kemp


Prince William County -- NOVA (3 GOP)

General '06: Webb
General '05: Kaine
General '04: Bush/Cheney (+9)
General '00: Bush/Cheney
General '96: Dole/Kemp

City of Chesapeake - Hampton Roads (1 GOP)

General '06: Allen
General '05: Kaine
General '04: Bush/Cheney (+15)
General '00: Bush/Cheney
General '96: Dole/Kemp


City of Virginia Beach - Hampton Roads (1 GOP)

General '06: Allen
General '05: Kaine
General '04: Bush/Cheney (+19)
General '00: Bush/Cheney
General '96: Dole/Kemp

"Real bullies always have a victim mentality inside, and she's the perfect example."

The First Amendment, broken down:

Congress...

1. shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof;

2. or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press;

3. or the right of the people peaceably to assemble,

4. and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

The First Amendment, according to Sarah Palin:

No one shall criticize me.

Just Cruel and Very, Very Unusual

Vibrators are legally prohibited from sale in several states: Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Virginia.

Who says that women aren't oppressed??

Friday, October 31, 2008

Wow, this will blow your mind

Amanda Jones is 109 years old and she just voted for Barack Obama.

Born in 1899, daughter of a slave. Women didn't get the right to vote until she was 21. African-Americans were enfranchised when she was 66.

Pull out any cliche or hyperbole you want here--there aren't words for this kind of history-making.

Rashid Khalidi's equanimity

"I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over."

When the Polls Close

No Ground Game for McCain

If you want a glimpse at the ground game for GOTV on election day, get a load of this on 538.com.

Now I really am beginning to feel sorry for McCain. By all accounts, this is pathetic.

Another way of looking at the electoral map

To win, McCain would have to win all of the states that are:

strong and leaning red

toss-ups

and leaning blue

(according to Pollster.com's map)

all of them.

Studs Terkel

Oral historian, journalist, and champion of the ordinary man and woman, Studs Terkel died today at the age of 96.

He said his epitaph would be, "Curiosity did not kill this cat."

He must have been very disappointed not to see the result of this election.

A short recent interview with him is here.

Manassas to be the big finale!

Obama to wrap up campaign Monday night with rally in VIRGINIA!

Bush hits bottom

CBS/NYT poll:

Bush approval rating 22%, disapproval 70%

This is net negative 48. Yikes.

The 22 percent supporting Bush are his core, core base. They are so deluded, there is nothing bad that he can do. So I think this is bottom.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

What if McCain made an infomercial?

John Cole on a theoretical McCain infomercial:
Now, for a moment, consider what the Republican 30 minute infomercial would look like this year- if I had to guess, it would be ten minutes about McCain as a POW, ten minutes of McCain saying he isn’t Bush, and then ten minutes of bullshit smears about Ayers, Khalidi, socialism, celebrity, and maybe Rick Davis could go before the cameras and pull a tire gauge out of his ass. For sheer nostalgia, maybe the lead McCain blogger could put those table-top gamers back in their place again. All the while, McCain could pepper his speech with folksy rejoinders about earmarks. And now that we are done with a hypothetical Republican 30 minutes, how did McCain actually respond to the commercial? In case you missed it, he whined about public financing (when did that become a Republican cause) and then muttered something about Obama delaying the World Series, and even that was a lie.
Obama never mentioned John McCain once.

Electoral Vote update

According to RealClearPolitics, Georgia is now a true toss-up state!

Although several pollsters have debunked the idea that the polls are "tightening," there is some movement today for McCain in the key states of Virginia and Pennsylvania. They now are leaning Obama rather than solid Obama.

Obama, however, has increased his lead in Nevada.

According to Nate Silver of 538.com, the determining states on election night will be Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado.

Quote of the Day

Trey Ellis:
Barack Obama is the Seabiscuit of our generation. The absurd long shot who reminds us of the power of our most ridiculous dreams.

Immediate Response Network for Election Day

CREDO Action

Protect the '08 Election
protect the election before it's too late!
Join the Immediate Response Network!

All of us are hoping that the November 4th election comes off without a hitch. But if it doesn't, are you ready and willing to take action? Since time may be too tight for email on Election Day, CREDO Mobile has setup a text-activist response network to deliver a text message straight to your phone.

We will send a text message to your mobile phone alerting you to local action only if there is an urgent issue requiring your help. Please join the text-activist immediate response network by signing up to the right - you may end up saving someone's right to vote.

A False Analogy

Nicole Wallace, campaign flack for John McCain, just did an interview with NPR. Denouncing "spreading the wealth around," she said Obama's tax plan was like stiffing a waitress and giving her tip to a homeless person.

This is the short version of an email going around, in which the author confronts an Obama-supporting waiter. In the story, the writer stiffs the waiter (no guilt expressed), goes outside and gives $10 to a homeless person, who thinks it's a good deal. The waiter is left sputtering.

This sounds like an adaptation of a conservative joke into a first-person narrative. Obviously, Nicole Wallace got the email and found it supremely funny.

Do I need to point out the obvious? In a system of progressive taxation, especially one as mild as Obama's, the waiter/waitress isn't taxed very much to begin with. And John McCain, do we really begrudge social programs so much that we wouldn't give any tax dollars to the homeless?

This is taking the analogy/story/joke on a literal level. The subtext isn't all that hard to get. Hard-working Americans are stiffed by the government, and their money is showered on poor people in the form of welfare. And the poor people are delighted.

You might have noticed that we have heard a lot about the middle class in this campaign (McC says "working class"), but almost nothing about the poor. In Republican world, the poor are morally bankrupt and lazy. They deserve what they get, because America is a land of limitless opportunity, if you just work hard enough. (One is in total control of one's destiny.) And governments shouldn't be in the business of helping free-loaders. Welfare just hurts people--as if any and all social programs designed to give lower income people a helping hand is welfare.

Government just screws things up anyway, they say. If someone is sick or homeless, it's up to private individuals and churches to help them out. Conservatives can feel good about themselves by participating in charity. I call it noblesse oblige.

I think Obama has been mum on the subject of poverty simply to stay on the middle class message and not exacerbate the wacko socialism accusation, but that doesn't get him off the hook.

A lot of conservatives, even the Wall Street Journal, have been writing that 40% of Americans don't pay income tax. Poor. poor rich people who pay for everybody else! What these pundits are leaving out, and they very well know they're leaving out, is that everyone pays payroll taxes--and that's federal income tax.

Progressive taxation is not socialism, especially when the taxes on the wealthiest 5% are only rolled back to the levels of Reaganism. I'll post some more about the foundations of this principle later.

Obama Video

In case you missed it, here's the Obama infomercial. BTW, John Stewart interviewed Obama on The Daily Show (yeah, really!), and Obama himself called it an infomercial.



It was clearly aimed, IMO, at white-bread America, to calm the fears stirred up by the sleazy McC/Palin tactics, and once again state the major policy proposals in the context of personal stories. To that purpose, I thought it was brilliantly done. It was a propaganda piece of course, but by god, I was sucked in. Campaigners will be studying that one for years. Masterful imagery.

Some people weren't into the live portion at the end, but it was very logical to me. (And what perfect timing transitioning over to Orlando!) A bit of incentive to keep watching, more exciting than a few more minutes of tape.

Extremely interesting was Obama's role as listener and narrator. The transition at the end to live moved the narrative into the present and made him the protagonist and agent of change.

Tell me what you think.

Joe doesn't show

I'd say, "Poor John McCain," except John doesn't deserve sympathy so much.

At his Ohio rally today, McC calls on Joe the Plumber, who was supposed to be in attendance, to stand up. But Joe didn't show.

Worse, 4,000 school-kids were bussed in to fill the stands. The crowd was 6,000 total.

This video is cringe-worthy:

A lot of people watched

Six networks aired Barack Obama 30-minute ad last And people tuned in. Nielson reports that almost 22% of households in the top 56 TV markets watched. Not sure how many individuals that translates to.

Update: It was seen by 23.6 million people on NBC, Fox, and CBS.

Bachmann update, and Dole fakes Hagan's voice in ad

You may have seen Michelle Bachmann's (R-MN) bizarre rant in an MSNBC Hardball interview calling for a McCarty-ite investigation into supposed "Anti-American" members of Congress.

Her opponent, El Tinklenburg, raised $1.5 million since she went off. Her poll numbers have gone down, and Tinklenburg might win this race.

In this video, Bachmann is laughed at by a debate audience when she claims that the financial crisis was caused by too much regulation.



We have another disgusting attack in North Carolina, this time from U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole on here opponent. Senator Dole is locked in a tight race against Kay Hagan, and she recently put up an ad that--unbelievably--faked Kay Hagan's voice saying "there is no God."

You can donate to Kay Hagan here:
www.actblue.com/page/kayhaganrules

American Idol preps youth vote

On the New Republic, an argument that Simon Cowell may have paved the way for the biggest new trend of this election--youth turnout to vote.

Really, it makes sense.

Exxon makes blow-out profit last quarter

Exxon Mobil shatters own record for largest profit from operations by a US corporation

HOUSTON (AP) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, says it shattered its own record for the biggest profit from operations by a U.S. corporation, earning $14.83 billion in the third quarter.

Bolstered by this summer's record crude prices, the Irving, Texas-based company said Thursday that net income jumped nearly 58 percent, or $2.86 a share in the July-September. That compares with $9.41 billion, or $1.70 a share, a year ago.

The previous record for U.S. corporate profit was set earlier this year, when Exxon Mobil earned $11.68 billion in the second quarter.
Windfall profits tax, anyone?

The Low-Information Voter

From two writers, one from the Daily Show, the other from Aqua Teen Hunger Force:

Closing Appeals

From Daily Kos:
Dear America,

Mine.

Mine mine mine.

Me Me Me Me Me Me Me!

Mine mine mine mine mine. Mine. Mine. Mine. Mine!

In conclusion: Fear fear fear fear. Very scary fear!

Sincerely,

The Republican Party

P.S. If you liked Joseph McCarthy, you'll love us!

Dear America,

We.

Us. We. Together. Americans. United States.

Hope compassion equality inclusiveness competence.

Brains common sense community respect hard work accountability.

Action change responsibility. More viewpoints, smarter solutions.

In conclusion: Yes we can.

Sincerely,

The Democratic Party.

P.S. Vote.

Early voting predictions difficult

Marc Ambinder discusses the early vote:
Gallup and Pew data show that Democrats are leading in the early vote. The equally reliable Annenberg National Election Survey's data shows that, across the country, Democrats are tied with Republicans in the early vote. Obviously, early voting matters by state only, but these datums are worth noting because Republicans have historically held an early vote advantage nationwide. (Note: Republicans tend to get their folks to fill out absentee ballots and return them early; Dems are investing disproportionately in getting people to leave their homes and vote early, so Democratic numbers will increase as the election approaches.)
Something to keep track of -- and something we really have no data for -- is the percentage of sporadic voters who're turning out early. That is.. the percentage of unreliable or non-habitually voting Democrats, Republicans and independents who've already cast a ballot. The GOP won't disclose their estimates; the Obama campaign believes that at least 20 percent of the Democratic early vote nationally are comprised of non-habitual Democratic voters. In some states, like Nevada, the number is around 40%.

Larry Sabato calls election for Obama, bigtime

If you live outside of NoVa, you can't get away from UVA professor of political science and media hound Larry Sabato. He's the go-to guy on every political matter for every Virginia reporter who needs a quote.*
In what he calls THE LAST WORD--ALMOST, his penultimate prediction for the year, Virginia pundit Larry Sabato offers a presidential map in which Obama carries all Kerry states, as well as NM, CO, IA, FL, OH, MO, NV, NC and VA.
That's 364 electoral votes to 174.

*My poli-sci professor in grad school got tired of reporters calling him up for comment, so one night as he was about to go on a live feed from the Hollins campus, he "suddenly" had to run to the bathroom, effectively stiffing the on-site reporter. They never called him up again.

Bill with Barack in Orlando

Bill Clinton says, the four things that really matter in a president are:

the philosophy, the policies, the ability to make a decision, and the ability to execute that decision and makes changes in people's lives.



Ted Stevens not quite a felon

In spite of being convicted of a felony of "moral turpitude," Ted Stevens will still be allowed to vote because the court case has not been officially concluded.

He is down in the polls, however, and unlikely to win.

But here's a scenario to keep you up at nights: If Stevens does win the election, and then resigns under pressure, Sarah Palin would be at liberty to appoint herself to the US Senate!

Countdown: 5 Days

Are You Suffering from Election Insanity?
Are you finding it hard to focus? When you think about the possibility of McCain winning next week do you feel lost and bewildered at what that would mean to your life? Do you feel like your head is about to explode?

Reactions to Obama Ad

Some reactions to the half-hour ad, from Politico's Arena:
Eric Liu, Author and former Clinton White House adviser, WA:

Here's the simplest measure of how this piece was effective: it reminded us what it's like to look forward to hearing from our President. What Obama has reinvented here is not the campaign ad but the fireside chat.
Adam Bonin, Attorney and Chairman, Netroots Nation:

Obama raised the bar for discourse in this past week -- a totally positive, solutions-oriented half hour. Didn't criticize his opponent, didn't even mention him. How can McCain/Palin still continue with their petty, nasty attacks at everyone who's ever lived in Hyde Park? Is that how he wants his last campaign's week to be remembered?
Tony Fabrizio, Republican strategist and pollster:

I thought that Obama had actually bought almost all the available time left on DC TV stations and some traffic department accidentally strung all of he Obama TV ads together during one exceedingly long commercial break.
Norman J. Ornstein, Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute:

Was it effective? You bet! It was a great piece of television, flawlessly produced and paced beautifully. It reinforced every theme Obama wants to hit. Followed by a late-night rally in Florida, it makes it a very good day and night for Obama. Even if it does not get a huge cumulative audience for the money spent, it serves another big purpose. At this stage of a campaign, control of the message for each day is critical. Today and tomorrow, Obama controls the message.For McCain, the bad news is this: If you are behind with six days to go, you can't afford to lose two of them.
Deborah Tannen, Author and professor of linguistics:

It was brilliant to end the half hour magazine-show style presentation by moving to a live closing. Realizing the show was suddenly live sent a jolt of electricity through the room in which I was watching; everyone sat up and gasped.

The live ending reflected back on the prior half hour: here was Obama, looking and sounding exactly as he did in the produced segment, and this was real, so what came before must haven been real, too. It also sent a very eloquent metamessage: that Obama could time the closing of his talk to tens of thousands of people so perfectly and seamlessly, gave the impression of control, discipline, and breathtaking competence that are exactly what is needed in a leader, especially now.
Fred Barbash, Moderator:

My son, 13, left his video games to watch it. If Obama achieves nothing else, I thank him for that. In fact, I hear that lots of people watched it with their families or with friends. More importantly, I hear they went out of their way to watch it with their families and friends, as opposed to stumbling across it while waiting for the World Series. Whatever side you're on, when you remind yourself that this was just a long ad, you must admit that this is beyond remarkable.
Tell me what you thought.

McCain Looks for a Scapegoat

No doubt he's looking for several. He and staff are likely to focus their rage on their own VP first:

www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15073.html
Why didn’t he get to know her better before he made his choice?

It’s not like he was rushed. McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in early March. He didn’t announce his choice for a running mate until late August.

Wasn’t that enough time for McCain to get to know Palin? Wasn’t that enough time for his crackerjack “vetters” to investigate Palin’s strengths and weaknesses, check through records and published accounts, talk to a few people, and learn that she was not only a diva but a whack job diva?
In truth, Palin’s real problem is not her personality or whether she takes orders well. Her real problem is that neither she nor McCain can make a credible case that Palin is ready to assume the presidency should she need to.

And that undercuts McCain’s entire campaign.
It's McCain and McCain's decisions that have cost him this race. Not the financial crisis, not Palin's "going rogue," not even Bush's appalling damage done in the last eight years. A superior candidate with a superior campaign would have had a striking advantage over Obama with the kind of handicaps of perception he came into the race with.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Obama, the 30-minute commercial

You can say that I drank the Obama Kool-Aid if you like. The man makes me want to be a better person.

Republicans have brought their own house down

The conviction of Ted Stevens reminds Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report of "Foley Friday" in 2006, when news broke of then-GOP Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate behavior toward a House page:
At that point in 2006, Republicans had already been buffeted for a year or more by a then-worsening situation in Iraq and a wide array of scandals. Just as it seemed things could not possibly get worse, they did. Only the most partisan of Democrats or cold-hearted of people would fail to have some compassion or sympathy towards a party for which virtually everything has gone wrong. Someone recently likened it to watching a wounded dog kicked.

Um, sorry. What has happened that hasn't been a result of the GOP's own actions or that of its members? This is the party (with Democratic collusion) that invaded and occupied Iraq; gave us Lee Atwater and Rovian politics; trampled on the Constitution in myriad ways; undid the very foundation of our system of government with the tyranny of executive authority; "starved the beast" of vital government agencies with disastrous results in New Orleans; cultivated lobbyist corruption a la Jack Abramoff; and, the piece de resistance, this financial crisis, a product of "free market" deregulation and laissez faire (hallmark of the Republican philosophy).

Truly Democrats failed to defend our interests and welfare the last 8 years, but Republicans have done their best to destroy the Constitution, our safety by war-mongering, our system of government, and our economy. If they lay claim to any integrity, they destroyed that too. Their trouncing is hardly bad luck; it is only the consequences of their actions.

Polls say 272 Strong Obama

Pollster.com 's electoral map now predicts 272 Strong electoral votes for Obama, plus 39 in the Lean column. A candidate needs 270 to win. Pollster seems pretty conservative about moving states from the Lean category to the Strong category. If polling is remotely accurate, it would be difficult to say the least for McCain to turn Strong blue states to Red by election day.

But take nothing for granted--vote early, and do what you can to get Obama elected.

Even Mississippi wants to be blue

Holy crap. Mississippi is now leaning McCain.

McC is up only 7 points in the state.

Chevron sued for killing protesters in Nigeria

An NGO I used to work for, EarthRights International, is spearheading a lawsuit against Chevron under a law called the Alien Tort Claims Act, which allows US corporations to be sued for human rights abuses defined by international law. Years after it was filed, the case has finally gone to court. Here it is in a nutshell:

EarthRights International is co-counsel in a case charging Chevron with complicity in brutal attacks against nonviolent demonstrators in Nigeria who protested the oil company's environmental destruction and economic disruption in their communities. In May 1998, members of the Ilaje community staged a peaceful protest at Chevron's Parabe oil platform off the Nigerian coast. Chevron called in the Nigerian military and "kill and go" police, flew them to the platform on Chevron-contracted helicopters, and supervised their attack against the protesters. Two demonstrators were killed, others were shot, and several others were detained and tortured. The victims' case against Chevron is currently on trial in a San Francisco federal court, while a similar case seeking to stop Chevron's ongoing harmful practices is scheduled for trial in California state court in September 2009. [actually started October 2008]

www.earthrights.org/legal/chevron

There is also a story about it here on Huffington Post:
http://bit.ly/4BSktI

The lawyer mentioned, Dan Stormer, is co-counsel with EarthRights.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

A Roosevelt Democrat

A really inspirational video from an Obama office in Colorado:

A Real Virginian

I have "real Virginia" credentials. I grew up in Salem, Virginia, in the Roanoke Valley, population somewhere around 25,000. My family tree on my father's side, and I think on my mother's as well, is many generations of Virginians. Moneta in Bedford County is the homestead of my father's family, where my great-grandparents and their ten children ran a farm and the town's general store. My grandmother's family originates in Hillsville, deep in the southwestern part of the state, and one of my ancestors played a role in the Hillsville Courthouse Massacre of 1910, an infamous event instigated by Dem vs Repub conflict.

I have conservative credentials as well. My father is a Goldwater Republican with a Horatio Alger story, and my mother was a member of the John Birch Society. They took me as a small child to an election rally for Mills Godwin, the only Virginia governor to serve two terms. Many years ago, a cousin from Front Royal ran for the Virginia House of Delegates. I heard that one of my cousins married into the Kilgore family. Most of my second cousins are Baptist evangelicals who homeschool their children, then send them on to a Christian college in Tennessee.

Alas for my virtuous kin, I turned out to be an over-educated, in-your-face commie pinko atheist.

To be continued...