False Equivalency

The fall election campaign was all about false equivalency in the press: some negativity and distortions on Obama's part was somehow on the same plane as McCain's off-the-charts smear campaign. (Was it even on the same planet?) How can calling a presidential candidate a terrorist and inciting the mob against him be equivalent to exaggerating the effects of Social Security policy on seniors?

We can chalk it up to Lee Atwater and his Sith apprentice, Karl Rove.

A cowed media in thrall to "balance" has been the conservative co-conspirator for the last eight years, if not much, much longer. Also blame journalists' acquired cynicism (see Atwater, Rove) for low, low expectations of political behavior. Therefore, Clinton's hijinx with Lewinsky were supposedly high crimes, while Bush's actual high crimes...well, let's not get too exercised about those. Glen Greenwald lays it all out succinctly:

Instead, we'll just dismiss the last eight years as nothing really notable -- just the standard, garden-variety failures, disappointments and corruption we normally see from politicians. Hence: Bill Clinton had an affair and let contributors stay in the Lincoln Bedroom; George Bush tortured people, stomped on the Constitution, chronically broke our laws, started wars based on manufactured pretexts, committed felonies by spying on American without warrants, abolished habeas corpus, imprisoned human beings in "black sites," etc. Boy, politicians sure are bad. Let's move on and hope Obama doesn't do what Clinton and Bush both did. That's the mentality that ensures that our current political leaders -- and their enablers in the Beltway establishment -- won't be held accountable for what they've done.

It's the death of outrage. If Watergate happened today, who would care?

There are some things that warrant getting really, really outraged. Undermining the Constitution, our whole system of government, and fundamental rights like habeus corpus, not to mention taking the country to war on false pretenses--if you can't get mad about that, what can you get mad at?

Undoing the Bush Years

Let what was done be undone!

Transition advisers to President-elect Barack Obama have compiled a list of about 200 Bush administration actions and executive orders that could be swiftly undone to reverse White House policies on climate change, stem cell research, reproductive rights and other issues, according to congressional Democrats, campaign aides and experts working with the transition team.

A team of four dozen advisers, working for months in virtual solitude, set out to identify regulatory and policy changes Obama could implement soon after his inauguration.

Condi is Pleased

Condi Rice looked so happy the day after Barack Obama was elected--do ya think she voted for him?

Harry Potter and the Candidate

Hmm. Yesterday in his press conference, Obama fielded a softball question about his daughters' new puppy with a quip about how it would be "a mutt like me." (I hope he doesn't lose the political incorrectness over time.)

I suddenly had a free-association with the word "mutt" and "mudblood," the term JK Rowling created to describe children of wizards/witches and "muggles" (regular people). A raison d'etre of the evil Slytherins is discrimination against mudbloods. They are always scheming for wizard/witch purity.

Not hard to see the parallel with interracial marriages and their resulting bi-racial children. Rowling obviously intends to infuse a moral lesson about the evils of bigotry in the Harry Potter books.

Now the first Harry Potter book came out in 1998, ten years ago. I was wondering, how many young Obama-ites have been raised on this stuff? I mean, the books have been so wildly popular that lots of adults gobbled down the books, even if they didn't have children. I read the first five or so. (I recently heard that Obama read all the books in their entirety to his daughters.)

Have the Harry Potter books been among the influences paving the way for greater acceptance of bi-racial men and women like Barack Obama? Media have pointed out the non-issue of race for youth now, given changed attitudes and the sheer numbers of mixed race. No biggie, because outside the small rural all-white towns, people of color are slowly outpacing their minority status, and us white folks are getting used to things.

But young activists who began reading Harry Potter at age ten (mostly white urban/suburbanites?) might not be indifferent to race and mixed race. They might share something with their Boomer parents in this respect. A bi-racial candidate could be the rallying point for a subconscious call to nobility while battling evil Slytherins, uh, i mean Republicans. Go Gryffindor!

Cynicism is out, hope is in

Obama understood that he had become a giant screen upon which Americans projected their hopes and fears, dreams and frustrations. Maybe such a person never really existed, couldn't exist, but people wanted a savior nonetheless.

This behind-the-scenes piece by Newsweek is not to be missed. It is long but worth the investment of time.

This is something I wrote last March:

... Obamamania. True, i am bewildered by the fainting spells, the frenzy reminiscent of Beatle-mania. I am for Obama. I think he has integrity, substance, intelligence, in addition to the eloquence and inspiration.

The frenzy and enthusiasm has been awakened in a populace starved for something to believe in, glutted on cynicism since birth. God, are we in for some disappointment eventually. No one can live up to this. But Obama has something all of them have lacked since Bobby Kennedy. And that's been a long long time.

At first I supported Hilary in the primaries, even though I thought Obama was amazing from day one. It was a kind of pragmatism, cynicism even, that the idealism of Obama's rhetoric which inspired me so much could never be realized in practice. I could not hope that enough people would get behind it. That's why I think this election has been a triumph of hope over cynicism. But it comes with eyes wide open and without the utopianism of the 60s revolution.

Map of Virginia Election Results

Check out this very cool interactive map from the Roanoke Times.

It shows election results from the Presidential elections in Virginia back to 1980. See what counties flip from red to blue. Very easy way simply to view this election's results as well.

Senate Update

There are still three undecided races in the Senate:

Alaska
Georgia
Minnesota

Alaska: Most MSM (Mainstream Media) seem to be treating this as a done deal, that felon Ted Stevens won. But the fact is, there are thousands of absentee ballots to count. It's not over yet.

The result is important for more than just Stevens and one more seat or less for the GOP. If Stevens wins, and he "retires", goes to prison, or is chucked out by the Senate itself, it is up to the Governor of Alaska to call a special election.

Hmm, who is the Governor of Alaska?

There is no reason that Palin couldn't run for Senate herself. And her popularity rating, while damaged, is still very high.

Georgia: When a candidate doesn't achieve 50% of the vote, there is a runoff election between the top two vote-getters. Incumbent Saxby Chambliss didn't quite get there, so in early December, he and Martin will square off again. Martin has already launched ads featuring Obama.

Minnesota: The differential in this election result is in the hundredths of percent. Al Franken trails Norm Coleman by only 237 votes. The recount probably will conclude next month.

Kick him out!

Lieberman must go! Sign a petition and call your senators.

Hooray for the Constitution!

Check out the Organizational Chart from the Presidential Transition Team.

Note that the three branches of government, including the executive, are subordinate to the Constitution.

Note that the Vice President belongs to the Executive branch, and does not constitute a fourth branch of government. (Yeah, Cheney, that means you.)

Obama is a constitutional scholar.

Perriello defeats Goode in recount

After an amazingly close recount, Tom Perriello claims victory in the 5th CD of Virginia!

(I was in error in an earlier post about the number of Congressional Districts in Virginia: there are 11, not 12. Now there 6 Dems, 5 Repubs representing Virginia in Congress.)

Expectations and responsibility

From the Obama website:

I'm asking you to believe. Not just in my ability to bring real change in Washington ... but in yours.

We're hearing a lot about expectations and disappointment with respect to Obama now that he has won the presidency.

I have never thought that Obama was a liberal. He has always been a very pragmatic and compromising centrist. His record shows that. So I don't expect to agree or like everything that he does.

My responsibility now is to act and advocate for the change I believe in. It was always my responsibility--but Obama's election has given me greater hope and a greater sense of agency and empowerment.

The Clousseau Doctrine

The Fallibility of Infallibility.

Fall down the stairs and pretend you meant to do that.

The McCain campaign all over the place.

I prefer to call it Orwellian. Serious charge, I know. I wish I had time to compile every time the campaign declared up was down and vice versa. I found it extremely disturbing.

And the projection, which seemed entirely genuine, and therefore even more disturbing. "Obama is running the most negative campaign in history," when that charge had been leveled at the McC campaign, quite legitimately.

Yeah, I can't let it go. It still needs to be talked about, because the GOP campaign, in spite of its ultimate defeat, goaded the underbelly of America and legitimized it.

The Appalling Candidacy of Sarah Palin

I wasn't really planning to listen to the prank call on Sarah Palin--the one where a Quebecois radio jock pretends to be Nicolas Sarkozy--thinking i got the gist from a headline.

But I thought I would listen to a few seconds for curiosity's sake. And then, struck by horror, I forced myself to listen to the very end.

I had no idea it was that bad. Palin is awestruck, fawning, sycophantic to the supposed Sarkozy. She is trying hard to make conversation. She recites a few talking points from speeches. She obviously knows nothing about France except for Sarkozy's supermodel wife.

Wouldn't a VP candidate try to talk policy or trade or the EU or SOMETHING?

I know the election is over, she's vanquished for now. Though the threat of her holding higher office is past (again for now), and this was a prank call, it wasn't funny. At all.

We can't forget the appalling candidacy of Sarah Palin: who proposed and executed it, who excused and legitimized it, and the reasons for her popularity among a large segment of Americans. Damage was done.

Now I Can Be Brown

The election really has changed lives already. A friend who has children in daycare told me a little story today.

One daycare worker is a Palestinian woman, and she was so excited the day after Obama won the election. She said, "I hide! I hide! But now, I can be brown!"

Don't cry for me, Sarah Palin

The truth is, we never liked you.

How Arlington Voted

The complete election results for Arlington County. Voter turnout was 77 percent! Arlington delivered almost 79,000 votes for obama-Biden. (72%)

34,000 people voted absentee/early. That's 31% of the total Arlington vote! 79.3% of those votes went to Obama, and a much higher than average percentage of votes were cast for other candidates.

No provisional votes have been counted.

Shocking: Nader goes off rails

I used to think extremely highly of Ralph Nader. Now I am forced to acknowledge all those who have accused him of enormous hubris and vanity.

The day after our first African-American president is elected, Nader asks whether he will be an "Uncle Sam" or an "Uncle Tom."

Whether Nader has changed, or whether this interview reveals him as he's always been, I don't know. All I can say is that I'm shocked and disgusted beyond belief. Nader, BTW, misrepresents several of Obama's policies.

Even Fox News calls him out:

At Last

Government's true principles

Thomas Jefferson:

A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people, recovering their true sight, restore their government to it's true principles. It is true that in the mean time we are suffering deeply in spirit, and incurring the horrors of a war & long oppressions of enormous public debt.... If the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have patience till luck turns, & then we shall have an opportunity of winning back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are the stake. Better luck, therefore, to us all; and health, happiness, & friendly salutations to yourself.

See Just World News for the context of Mr. Jefferson's words.

The End of the Monster Years

Did last night feel like a big score for Sanity?

Here's what Paul Krugman has to say:

Last night wasn’t just a victory for tolerance; it wasn’t just a mandate for progressive change; it was also, I hope, the end of the monster years.

What I mean by that is that for the past 14 years America’s political life has been largely dominated by, well, monsters. Monsters like Tom DeLay, who suggested that the shootings at Columbine happened because schools teach students the theory of evolution. Monsters like Karl Rove, who declared that liberals wanted to offer “therapy and understanding” to terrorists. Monsters like Dick Cheney, who saw 9/11 as an opportunity to start torturing people.

And in our national discourse, we pretended that these monsters were reasonable, respectable people. To point out that the monsters were, in fact, monsters, was “shrill.”

Four years ago it seemed as if the monsters would dominate American politics for a long time to come. But for now, at least, they’ve been banished to the wilderness. [emphasis added]

In 1989 and 1990, I made extended visits to the Soviet Union. It was the Gorbachev years, glasnost and perestroika were the watchwords, but no one could conceive that the whole edifice would soon fall.

In Soviet dissident literature, there is a strong theme of pervasive insanity that permeates all parts of life because of the corrupt, authoritarian system. Several Russian friends and acquaintances told me how crazy-making life was. One good friend even had himself drugged and institutionalized twice to avoid mandatory military service, which scared the bejesus out of him.

Here at home, something changed with the Newt Gingrich "revolution." The inmates took over, and fringe, extremists views--some things that are just plain wrong--became legitimized. I think a lot of us have felt like we have been living in the crazy house, and as I saw in the USSR, over time, it can just plain make you crazy.

Let's commit ourselves to sanity. Let's never let the monsters take over again.

North Carolina: Tied

As far as I know, nobody has called the presidential race in North Carolina. And here's why:

The percentage vote is tied 50-50. Yeah way.

The total votes, with 100% precincts reporting, has Obama ahead by 12,163. That's a very small margin out of 4.2 million votes cast (like .29%), so I imagine that there is going to be some verification and recounting before we have a certified winner.

The Final Call from the Onion

The Onion says it better than anybody!

Carrying a majority of the popular vote, Obama did especially well among women and young voters, who polls showed were particularly sensitive to the current climate of everything being fucked. Another factor contributing to Obama's victory, political experts said, may have been the growing number of Americans who, faced with the complete collapse of their country, were at last able to abandon their preconceptions and cast their vote for a progressive African-American.

Citizens with eyes, ears, and the ability to wake up and realize what truly matters in the end are also believed to have played a crucial role in Tuesday's election. [emphasis added]

Virginia: The Purple State

Virginia has a Democratic Governor.
2 Democratic Senators.
7 Democratic Congressional Representatives.
A Dem-majority State Senate.

*Update: Only 6 Dem House Reps as of now. VA-05, the race between Tom Perriello and Virgil Goode, is going to have a recount. Right now, Perriello has the advantage of only 31 votes!

Three new Virginia Democrats in Congress

Two huge upsets in House races in Virginia last night!

Glenn Nye (D) beat Thelma Drake (R) by 4 points in the eastern part of the state (Norfolk). Huge.

A squeaker until the very end, Tom Perriello has won in central/sounthern Virginia, dividing the vote almost 50-50 with Virgil Goode!

I lived in this district for several years, and I would have to say, good riddance, Virgil!

Turning a red district blue, Gerry Connolly prevailed as expected over Kevin Fimian in NoVa.

A major disappointment for me was Frank Wolf trouncing Judy Feder in Loudoun County. This was the guy who stood by while his campaign aides assaulted Feder staffers.

However, this election gives Virginia a Congressional delegation of 7 Democrats and 5 Republicans! I would have to look it up, but a Dem-majority make-up has probably not happened since the 60's.

Virginia for Obama!

I'll try to put some of the Virginia results in perspective as the final tallies come in, but this is a first impression:

Virginia popular vote: Obama won by five points! 52%-47%

Arlington County is always the highest democratic-voting county in the state. But in the presidential election last night, we had rivals in some Virginia cities and their surrounding counties.

Arlington County: 72% Obama - 27% McCain

Richmond City: 79% - 20% (surrounding Henrico Co.: 56% - 44%)

Norfolk City: 71% - 29%

Portsmouth: 67% - 33%

It definitely looks like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties delivered for Obama. The motherload of votes.

Poll Opinion: Palin was bad choice

An unofficial internet poll on MSNBC asks whether McCain would have fared better had he picked a different running mate (i.e., did Palin sink his ship)?

79% of 48,000 voters so far say yes!

Arlington voting results - partial

Arlington County voting results are here. 51 of 51 precincts reporting. But, they do not include absentee ballots! Previously i mentioned that 22% of Arlington voters voted early/absentee. So there may be a lot of votes missing.

Assuming that it would not change the final results, all the bond referenda passed, and the Housing Authority was rejected.

As expected:

President: Barack Obama!
Senator: Mark Warner
Representative: Jim Moran
County Board: Barbara Favola
School Board: Libby Garvey, Emma Violand-Sanchez

Triumph of Hope

In August 2004, Barack Obama delivered the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention. I jumped out of my chair with sheer excitement and thought, "This man will be President one day. What a great day that will be." I had a feeling of hope for our country and the world that I had never had before.

I thought it would be 2012 or more likely 2016 before Obama would make history. But it's today that is a great day. All things are possible.

85,000 attend Obama rally

85,000 cheering people gathered at Prince William Fairgrounds in Manassas for Obama's final campaign rally tonight.

Road to 270: Virginia

Virginia, key numbers, demographics, and analysis summary. Plus Tim Kaine!

The 438,000 new voters registered in Virginia this year!

Watch Obama Speech in Virginia - NOW

Barack Obama's final rally will be in Mannassas at 9pm, broadcast live on C-SPAN.

Joe and Jill Biden will be in Richmond tomorrow, "informally" talking to voters.

This is the 17th visit to Virginia by Obama or Biden.

Arlington Votes--Bigtime!

Twenty-two percent of Arlington County's 149,000 voters have already cast a vote! That's more than double the rate of the rest of the state.

Given Arlington's history, 75% of its votes could go democratic.

Can Arlington deliver 112,000 votes to Barack?

McCain sues Virginia Electoral Board today

Now the McCain campaign is doing something bizarre to include more votes in the Virginia tally (rather than disqualify votes)--except it's a tactic to delay counting votes.

John McCain's campaign sued Virginia's electoral board today, hours before the election, seeking to force the state to count late-arriving overseas military ballots.

The lawsuit asks a federal judge to order the State Board of Elections to count any overseas absentee ballots sent by November 4 and received by local election officials as late as November 14.

If McCain gets his way, Virginia wouldn't be called (for Obama) early in the evening, and consequently discourage GOP voters on the West coast.

The funny thing is, voters in the military are going for Obama in large numbers, in spite of McCain's POW history. So you could call this stunt a tactic, not a strategy.

The Truth about Voter Registration Fraud: There is No Fraud

Politico:

For weeks, Republican leaders have warned that widely reported problems with fake voter registrations could result in a flood of phony votes in pivotal states.

But Ronald Michaelson, a veteran election administrator and member of the McCain-Palin Honest and Open Election Committee, said in an interview that he could not name a single instance in which this had occurred.

“Do we have a documented instance of voting fraud that resulted from a phony registration form? No, I can’t cite one, chapter and verse,” he said.

Let's say that again: there has never been a single documented instance of voter fraud from a bad registration form.

Real voter fraud is the result of efforts to disenfranchise groups of people or disqualify large numbers of legitimate registrations for bogus reasons. Republicans have been putting massive energy into this for weeks, if not months. (Once again, the Bush administration sicked the DOJ on allegations of voter fraud--the very foundation of the recent DOJ scandal! Some US attorneys were fired because they unwilling to aggressively pursue politicized unfounded allegations of voter fraud.) Talking Points Memo Muckraker is the best source of GOP attempts at voter fraud.

Some high points:

1. Michigan residents could have been denied their vote because they had lost their homes due to foreclosure.
2. Some states, notably Ohio, have been comparing voter registrations with other databases. Registrations with the smallest of errors, like typos, could have been purged, but a court intervened.
3. Private investigators have been hired by the GOP in New Mexico to intimidate Latino voters.
4. The GOP has been trying to shut down early voting in 3 heavily democratic counties in Indiana.

Virginia is bellweather this time

Huffington Post guide to watching election results:

Virginia is a crucial battleground state, and an Obama win there (without Georgia or Indiana) would suggest he is likely to take the oath of office on January 20. In terms of the future, an Obama victory would mean that Virginia has completed the move from red to purple, with all the demographic changes pointing toward further Democratic gains.

If Obama carries either Georgia or Indiana, look for a big Democratic night all around. If he carries both (along with Virginia), Republicans should consider turning on the gas and closing the windows. Those who care only about the presidential outcome should feel free to switch to sports, watch a movie, or go to bed.

Conversely, if McCain carries Virginia, Indiana and Georgia, plan to stay up a little later.

Prescient Words

Barack Obama's speech in 2002 on the possibility of invading Iraq, when he was still a state senator:

“I know that a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, of undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without international support will fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than the best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al Qaeda. I'm not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars.”

Recall that Obama gave the keynote speech to the Democratic convention in 2004.

Why is Obama's supposed lack of experience even an issue in this election?

Jurors hard to come by in DC

Remember how one the jurors in the Ted Stevens (Sen., Alaska) trial took off suddenly during deliberations, saying her father died? Then later, she couldn't be found?

Turns out, she went to the horse races.

Dick Cheney is both Delighted and Delightful

Obama congratulates McCain on getting Cheney's endorsement:

"Yesterday, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location," Obama said. "He said that he is, and I quote, 'Delighted to support John McCain.' He's delighted. You've never seen Dick Cheney delighted before. But he is. That's kind of hard to picture."

Huge early voting turnout

More than 27 million votes have been cast in early voting in 30 states as of Saturday night, according to the AP.

McCain doesn't attract rally attendance in FL; Gov. Crist bolts

From CNN:

John McCain’s first rally of the day, in Tampa outside Raymond James Stadium, only drew about 1,100 people. Local reporters noting that at almost the same spot just before the 2004 election, President Bush drew about 15,000 people. Two weeks ago, Obama drew an estimated 8,000.

Republican Gov. Crist, who had previously agreed to do interviews with CNN and various local affiliates, bolted right after the rally with no explanation.

The venue chosen for the rally could accommodate at least 10,000.

Campaign in Florida

Update from Florida:

First time volunteers Susan and Buz Livingston note the difference in Democratic efforts in the Panhandle. "Are you kidding me? The difference between the Obama and Gore/Kerry campaigns is the difference between high-speed internet and dial-up," Susan said.

Just say no to exit polling

Polling guru Nate Silver says you should absolutely, positively ignore exit polls!

The Pollster map

I put the Pollster.com map on the side of the page too, but here it is as well, in full view, not squished on the sides.

Note that Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota are toss-up states, while many states that are classified toss-up in the mainstream media--Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio--are actually lean blue.

There are even states that are strong Blue that we keep hearing are up in the air, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa.

Pollster is not a radical map. We'll see tomorrow whether the polls are completely off-base.

The Bottom Line

Here's what it boils down to for McCain tomorrow:

In every model, he MUST win:

1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. Montana

It is extremely unlikely that he will win without:

1. Ohio
2. North Carolina

Yeah, that's right. All of those states. If one of them is called for Obama, Obama has won.

Ready to be Inspired, Virginia?

My predictions

Electoral votes: Obama 371, McCain 167
Popular vote: Obama 52%, McCain 46.5%
Senate: Dems 59, Repubs 39, Ind. 2